MRO

Commercial airplane fleets are aging at an unprecedented rate, creating challenges for operators ranging from escalating maintenance costs to obstacles in achieving sustainability targets. The average age of airline fleets is frequently used as an indicator of fuel efficiency and maintenance spending. Since 2000, the average fleet age has fluctuated in response to industry disruptions like 9/11 and the financial crisis, which forced airlines to defer new aircraft orders. By 2018, the average fleet age was already 1.3 years older than in 2000. Recent events, including the 737 MAX grounding, COVID-19, and ongoing supply chain delays, have only exacerbated this trend. From 2018 to 2023, the fleet aged an additional 1.5 years. Today, 83% of commercial aircraft are out-of-warranty—significantly increasing maintenance requirements for operators. AeroDynamic Advisory predicts this trend will continue, with aircraft delivery levels unlikely to return to 2018 rates until 2027 or later. By 2033, the average fleet age may rise by another 1-2 years unless a substantial increase in aircraft deliveries is achieved. This aging trend creates strong demand in the commercial aftermarket, providing growth opportunities for MRO providers and OEMs with aftermarket-centric operations. MRO providers, in particular, stand to benefit as older fleets require more intensive engine maintenance, additional heavy checks, and interior retrofits. The increase in nonroutine maintenance tasks is pushing airline maintenance expenses from around 10% historically to approximately 15% of operational costs, totaling $122 billion in 2023. Sustainability goals add another layer of urgency. The International Air Transport Association (IATA) targets net-zero emissions by 2050, with 13% of the pathway relying on new-technology aircraft. However, delayed deliveries of these platforms are jeopardizing progress, leaving airlines to rely increasingly on sustainable aviation fuel and market-based measures to bridge the gap. To adapt to this new reality, airlines will need to adopt best MRO practices from peers and seek cost-efficient solutions for older fleets. OEMs must balance their investments between new platforms and aging fleet support, while MRO providers should prepare to expand capacity and enhance services for a market that increasingly depends on maintaining older aircraft.