India is poised to become the world’s fastest growing large aviation market by 2026, according to Airports Council International (ACI). While China leads in overall aviation market size, India’s growth is accelerating thanks to rising demand for air travel among its vast population, where per capita trips remain much lower compared to other major economies. This surge is driven by rapid infrastructure development, policy reforms, and the aspirations of an expanding middle class. Over the next three decades, India is projected to maintain its position as the third-largest aviation market globally but will lead the world in terms of growth rate.
Key highlights include India’s air passenger traffic projected to grow 10.5% in 2026 versus China’s 8.9%, with compound annual growth rates (CAGR) of 9.5% (2023-2027) for India compared to 8.8% for China. Despite 2025 projections showing China with a 12% growth rate and India at 10.1%, India’s long-term outlook remains strongest, with a projected 5.5% CAGR through 2053, the highest among major aviation markets. Per capita air travel in India remains low (0.1 trips in 2023 vs 0.5 for China and 2.1 for the US), but is expected to reach 0.4 by 2043, reflecting enormous room for expansion. Supporting this trajectory are robust policy initiatives like UDAN and Gati Shakti, plus infrastructure expansion and a growing middle class. By 2053, India is forecast to remain the third-largest aviation market worldwide, with the fastest growth rate, joining other fast-growing markets such as Vietnam, Philippines, Saudi Arabia, and Thailand