While China’s size as an aviation market is notably bigger than India, the pace of the latter’s growth is expected to gather pace amid rapidly growing air travel demand from a massive population base whose per capita air travel is low, which in turn points to a significant growth potential. The growth rate of India’s air passenger traffic appears set to overtake that of China in 2026, and the former is likely to be the world’s fastest-growing large aviation market over the next three decades, per projections from global airports industry body Airports Council International (ACI). While China’s size as an aviation market is notably bigger than India, the pace of the latter’s growth is expected to gather pace amid rapidly growing air travel demand from a massive population base whose per capita air travel is low, which in turn points to a significant growth potential. China, on the other hand, is already at a level of relatively greater maturity as an aviation market, and the scope of speedy growth may be limited vis-à-vis India.
Nevertheless, ACI’s long-term projections show that China is likely to overtake the US as the world’s largest aviation market by passenger numbers by 2053. India, despite the expected faster growth, is likely to maintain its position as the world’s third-largest aviation market over the next 30 years. The relatively high base of flyers in the US and China means that even with lower rates of growth than India’s, the aviation markets of these two giants will still be larger even 30 years down the line. According to ACI’s short-term projections till 2027, India’s air passenger growth in 2026 is seen at 10.5 per cent, higher than China’s 8.9 per cent for that year.